Michael Saylor’s Strategy has doubled down on its Bitcoin bet, acquiring 15,355 BTC for $1.42 billion at an average price of $92,737—marking its third mega-purchase this April after buys of $555.8 million at $84,785/BTC and $285.8 million at $82,618/BTC. With a 13.7% YTD yield on its BTC holdings, Bitcoin price consolidates near $96k ahead of the May 7 Fed meeting.
Bitcoin Technicals Signal Extended Rally
An interesting observation on the daily Bitcoin price chart is the extended bull runs after the 1-day RSI has crossed above 70. Such instances have historically resulted in 40% to 70% up moves in the next 30 to 40 days.
As of May 3, Bitcoin’s daily RSI has just crossed the 70-mark. If history repeats, this could be the last time to accumulate Bitcoin below $100k.
Will Bitcoin price continue its ascent beyond $100k? Apart from technicals a macroeconomic policies, Trump’s trade war negotiations also impact the price of BTC.
Macro Factors Influencing BTC Price
- Fed Meeting Impact on May 7
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- There is a 97.2% probability that the rates remain unchanged at the 425 to 450 basis point range, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Potential outcomes:
- A dovish tone from the Fed could result in a bullish leg propelling BTC to revisit $100k.
- On the other hand, a hawkish surprise could lead to a Bitcoin pullback to $92.2k support. A breakdown of this level could lead to steep corrections to $88k and $85.4k.
- The Dollar Index (DXY) weakens
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- As noted in previous CoinGape articles, the dollar Index, DXY, has collapsed nearly 11% in the past 100 days and current sits around 100.036. A further push into 100.820 could result in a steep rejection down to 91.
- Although the April Nonfarm Payrolls didn’t push DXY lower, the Fed’s decision on macroeconomic policy could drive US dollar lower. This development could propel Bitcoin price higher.
- Institutional Demand
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- Spot Bitcoin ETF has noted $4 billions in net flows since March 25.
- Adding a tailwind to institutional accumulation is MicroStrategy’s total April buys reaching north of 25,370 BTC worth $2.44 billion.
Critical Bitcoin Levels to Watch
With Nonfarm Payrolls out of the way, another volatile event, the Fed meeting on May 7, looms, which could induce volatility. Here are some key levels to watch for Bitcoin (BTC).
Resistance Levels
- $108k (all-time high)
- $100k (psychological barrier)
Support Zones
- $92k to $93k
- $88.4k
- $85.8k
To conclude, the overall Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish with targets beyond $100k in 2025. However, investors need to be cautious as BTC could chop around before it embarks on an exponential uptrend.
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